Egypt could face large-scale drought by the end of the century if it fails to make efficient use of water, according to the director of the environment and climate division at the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).

The average temperature in Egypt could rise by between two and four degrees Celsius by the end of this century , says Elwyn Grainger with the United Nations-affiliated agency.

It's a change, according to IFAD reports, that could prompt annual rainfall on the Mediterranean coast to fall 20 per cent.

"Most of people have not realised the [potential] disaster yet, and governments needs to make rapid preparations to tackle it," Grainger told Ahram Online. "There are obvious reasons why the public are focusing on immediate issues such as politics, but discussions at this Rio conference have huge implications for Egypt."

Grainger was speaking on the sidelines of Rio+20, the latest United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development, held this week in the Brazilian city of Rio de Janeiro.

Water availability per capita in the Middle East and North Africa regon is predicted to halve by 2050, even without the effects of climate change, according to IFAD data. The Egyptian government should co-ordinate with the UN to reduce the scale of the problem, Grainger said.

Among the recommended moves are rationalising the amount of water used by industry as well as enacting tight legislation to guard against waste during agricultural irrigation.

While fresh water supplies dwindle, Grainger says a new threat may come from salt water intrusion to coastal areas as climate change could lead to rises in global sea levels that would threaten Egypt's Nile Delta region.

More than 100 heads of state and tens of thousands of participants from governments, the private sector and NGOs headed to Brazil during this month for the Rio+20 conference for sustainable development.

The event aims to break years of deadlock on pressing environmental issues and set up long-term paths towards an environmentally-sustainable future.
Egypt has already heard serious warnings of future water shortages.

In May, the country's National Institute of Planning said Egyptians will need nearly 50 per cent more Nile water by 2050 to cater for an estimated population of 150 million people.

Egypt is currently entitled to 55 bcm of the Nile's total annual flow of around 84 bmc under a treaty with the eight other countries which share the river basin

The spirit of vengeance that marks Egypt's contemporary political discourse is no doubt a reaction to years of political oppression. It is nevertheless a disturbing phenomenon

Like many others, I am alarmed by the spirit of vengeance that is spreading among Egyptians lately. I do not doubt that it is an expected reaction to long years of political oppression, economic corruption, and cultural decline over the past decades.

Many are wondering what happened to this people who were once known for their compassion and tolerance, but today harbour deep resentment, strong rage and at times unjustified violence. Has the disposition of Egyptians changed or has something happened to alter the character of the country and trigger dominant feelings of vengeance in the transitional phase?

I am not promoting spontaneous forgiveness or neglecting rights or spilled blood. I am merely stating that everything is open to discussion except the lives of the martyrs. Today, as I call on the sons of the same nation to urgently review current conditions and their options in the future, I am taking a long hard look at the fog surrounding our lives and the dark clouds that are blocking our vision and turbulence that has become a key feature in our society.

As I say this, I am mindful of examples that preceded us and peoples who went through the same experience and were able to overcome the obstacles and difficulties with resolve, patience, openness mindedness and a far-reaching vision. We should discuss the following:

First, overall national interests should never mean forgetting the future or overlooking issues, but primarily means that we should have broad mobilisation that allows us to move forward without forgetting the importance of glancing backwards now and then. We should never forgive a tyrant or cover-up a crime, but what is critical now is to raise the country’s supreme interests above all and rise above the wounds and look forward more than backward.

South Africa under the leadership of the iconic activist Nelson Mandela is a model that is worth studying and pondering after the apartheid regime was ousted in this large multi ethnic African state that is home to Africans, Europeans, Indians and other ethnicities. Surely the people of Egypt, who have a history of hegemony and merged civilisation, can take a path that allows this historic melting pot with a cohesive culture to follow a similar path as this extraordinary human experience.

I repeat, there is no price for spilled blood and martyrs are heroes who light up our history, but the court cases addressing the looting, plundering, and theft of funds require another form of conciliation  and a different outlook than what is prevalent right now. Justice is running its course but the procession must continue on its way without stopping. We must not forget that many sectors in the state of Egypt are temporarily paralysed and we must address this with courage, boldness and faith.

Some people might say that our situation is different, and that in South Africa it was a cultural issue with a long history and that once society rejected its racist ways, it was ready to embrace the spirit of the age and move towards the future on a different path. We cannot remain hostage to the past and slaves to sorrow, but instead should all walk forward with forgiveness and contentment behind whomever wins the vote, and also those who were elected to parliament. They must all be able to bring us back together and accommodate the facts on the ground because time is passing, our country is bleeding, resources are declining and crises are erupting on a daily basis.

Second, the cacophony of debate and base dialogue we hear and the exchanged accusations and insults and invasive criticism should make us view these developments with objectivity that rises above the pain in order to achieve our aspirations and dreams. This is not easy, and we all realise how difficult it is to overcome the past and our lives then, but in the end we need courage, forgiveness, a spirit of conciliation, and an ability to free ourselves from the grip of the dreadful past.

Third, the Freedom and Justice Party, followed by the Salafist parties, are responsible to some degree for mobilising the people and their forces on a pre-determined path of reform, in which all political forces and experienced nationals should participate without exemption or exception. Enough lament about how the previous regime squandered Egypt’s most valuable human resources, and restricted their mobility which
deprived distinguished experts from playing an effective role on the national front and political stage.
Therefore, the new majority should not make the same mistakes as the old majority, or else we would be reproducing the past, at least in appearance.

Four, tearing down the wall of fear does not mean the disintegration of values or tradition or laws or disrespecting seniors and experience. Linking generations is the mechanism for progress towards the future and a safety valve. Anyone who believes that reform should begin with a specific generation or specific current is delusional; everyone is a partner in making the future and mapping out the new way of life for a people who have suffered for a long time. The time has come to join the age while well-equipped and with a modern rationale based on a broad vision and scrupulous administration.

Five, we must be aware of the dangers lurking around every corner which require us to be very cautious and vigilant, especially on the military and economic fronts. The Hebrew state is monitoring everything that goes on in the corridors of power in Egypt, and closely observes developments in the largest Arab state, as well as historically and geographically pioneer state in the region.

Israel’s Foreign Minister was not delusional when he said that “the Egyptian revolution poses a greater threat to Israel than Iran does.” Some statements by Egyptian presidential candidates rattled the recently formed coalition government in Israel so much, that many ultra-fanatics there view them as justification to  prepare for new military action that might target some areas in North Sinai.

Surely it is better for us focus our energies on what is happening around us on the domestic, regional and international fronts, instead of focusing on selective rhetoric that blocks our view and weakens our resolve. Egypt is a wealthy country with its heritage and people, and we must choose a much better path than the one we are taking. Revenge is easy but conciliation requires national courage; destruction is negative but serious construction is the nation’s path towards a promising future.

Egypt manager Bob Bradley does not intend to call up Mohamed Zidan again after he left the team’s training camp ahead of a crucial Nations Cup qualifier, goalkeeping coach Zaki Abdel-Fattah said on Friday.
Zidan, who turned down an offer from German Bundesliga side Mainz to extend his contract for one year, opted to skip the 30 June qualifier away to Central Africa to discuss a deal with an unnamed Chinese club.

Seven-time African champions Egypt will have to overturn a 3-2 first-leg deficit when they face Central Africa if they are to avoid missing out on the Nations Cup for the second consecutive time.

“Mr. Bradley rejected Zidan’s request to leave the training camp and fly to China, but the player still insisted to leave. There are lines that should not be crossed and Egypt’s interests are more important than anything else,” Abdel-Fattah told Ahram Online.

“The coach has on several occasions allowed Zidan to miss Egypt’s training camps to concentrate on his club career, and that helped him score five goals in five consecutive games with Mainz. Egypt is more important than any player who cares only about his interests.”

Abdel-Fattah also said Bradley might call up Ahly’s Emad Meteb as a replacement following Egypt’s game against Central Africa.

Zidan has been one of Egypt’s key players since making his international debut in a Nations Cup qualifier in 2007.

He played a pivotal role in helping the Pharaohs win the biennial tournament in 2008 and 2010 and was also part of the team’s squad for the 2009 FIFA Confederations Cup in South Africa, where he scored a famous goal against five-time world champions Brazil.

Sources close to both the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and the Muslim Brotherhood confirmed the two sides were heavily engaged in high-level talks that could produce "a political deal", which is likely to include announcing the Brotherhood's Mohamed Mursi Egypt's president elect.
According to a source close to the negotiations, the SCAF wants Mursi to desist from proclaiming himself president-elect, which he came close to doing at a press conference earlier on Friday. They also want him to pull the bulk of his supporters out of Tahrir and to agree to work within the parameters set out by SCAF in its annex constitutional declaration. The annex, enacted by the SCAF earlier in the week, gives the military a share in the prerogatives of the Egyptian president, as well as the legislative powers of the dissolved parliament.

For their part, Mursi and the Brotherhood insist that parliament not be dissolved, and that reelections would be held only for the one third of seats elected in accordance with the individual candidacy system. MPs elected in accordance with the party list proportional representation system, who account for the remaining two thirds of the assembly, would retain in their seats.

The Muslim Brotherhood would also like SCAF to delete from the constitutional annex such language as seems to directly undermine the powers of the president, including his right to appoint the minister of defence.

"A deal is possible; SCAF could settle to limit parliamentary re-elections of the one third of the seats elected in accordance with the individual candidacy system, in return for Mursi and the Brotherhood agreeing that the annex constitutional declaration be kept intact – at least for the moment, said a source who spoke to both sides to the ongoing negotiations.

This and other sources following the SCAF-Brotherhood talks agree that nothing is done until it is done, and admit that there is not a done deal as yet.

If a deal is reached, Brotherhood sources say, then Mohamed Mursi would be "legitimately announced as the elected president "tomorrow, or after tomorrow".

"But if no deal is reached, and if the SCAF insists on taking everything and giving nothing, then we would not be surprised if they announce Shafiq as president," said a leading Brotherhood figure.

Earlier in the day, government sources had told Ahram Online that Ahmed Shafiq, the last prime minister of ousted president Hosni Mubarak, is coming ahead of Mursi with close to one per cent 50.7 per cent of the vote. For its part, Ahram Online was careful to note that it could not ascertain whether this information expressed true intent, or was yet another salvo in the ongoing arm-twisting campaign against the Brotherhood.

Ahram Online's own informal count of the vote, based on the minutes of the general counting committees and the pronouncements of their presiding judges, had shown the Brotherhood's Mursi as a clear winner, ahead of military candidate Ahmed Shafiq by close to a million votes

Why do we need to sleep?

What makes us laugh?

Why do we have superstitions?
This week author Matthew Johnstone argues we should have a set time every day to worry about out problems.

“My idea to change the world and improve the world that we live in is to create a place and a time to worry. And this could be a dedicated time at 10 in the morning or 3 in the afternoon we could have it in our afternoons, have it in our parks, have it in our public places.

One of the ideas it could be instituted by is all the screens on our phones, on our computers on our TVs would go blank and a little sign could come up and say ‘It is time to worry’. And then for about five minutes we can just purge ourselves of all our worrying thoughts that are hanging over us like bad smells, and we can really well on that worry. And then at the end of that five minutes there’d be a little chime and we can go back to our day-to-day basis.

The thoughts about this really is to run towards our fears and embrace them rather than running away from them all the time.”

You can listen to Matthew discuss his idea with Indian psychiatrist Vikram Patel and psychotherapist Gwen Adshead more detail on the BBC World Service programme The Forum, where you can also download more 60-second ideas.

If you have a 60-second idea or would like to comment on this story, head over to our Facebook page or message us on Twitter.

Thousand of protesters fill Tahrir Square against interference in Egypt's transition to democracy

Egyptian striker Ahmed Hossam 'Mido' returned to England after signing a one-year contract with championship side Barnsley on Thursday.

The ruling military council’s recent addendum to the March 2011 Constitutional Declaration sparked uproar across Egypt’s political spectrum, not just from the Brotherhood who is claiming presidential victory for their candidate Mohamed Mursi. Many claim that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), successfully curbed the presidential authorities, but is it true?

Ahly coach Hossam El-Badry has said he did not expect the poor performance of Turkish side Antalya during the friendly that finished with a 7-0 win for the Egyptian giants.

The hopes of Egypt's revolutionaries now lie in tatters.

Far from being the climax of the country's transition to democracy, the presidential elections which ended on Sunday mark one more stage in the struggle against a ruling military council determined to dominate the political game.

Barely had the polling stations closed when the military issued a proclamation which made a mockery of the democratic process.

Real power will lie not with the elected president or the elected parliament, but with an unelected military elite.

Gamble
This represents a significant challenge both to the popular forces in Egypt and to the Obama administration in Washington.


Supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Mursi are adamant he has won the election
The generals may well be gambling that, after 16 months of political turbulence, Egyptians are now exhausted and disillusioned.

It is certainly true that a lot of Egyptians yearn for stability, the restoration of law and order, and the revival of their battered economy.

But the gamble may not pay off. There is a real risk of fresh confrontation.

The Muslim Brotherhood believes its candidate, Mohammed Mursi, won the election fair and square. It has made it clear it will not remain passive in the face of what it calls the military's "coup".

But its leaders are habitually cautious. They will have to decide if their interests are best served by an all-out confrontation with the military, or by some sort of accommodation.

If the generals are smart and accept a Mursi victory, the second option would be more palatable.

Should the generals try to deny victory to the Islamists, all bets are off.

Obama's choice
For its part, the Obama administration's very public commitment to Egyptian democracy is now being put to the test.

Continue reading the main story

The state department has said it is "deeply concerned" at the military's actions, warning that decisions taken now will have an impact on the US-Egyptian relationship.

But the Egyptian generals may well feel the stakes are so high that vague threats from Washington can be brushed off.

The demise of Egypt's revolution would be a serious blow to the Arab Spring but would not by itself signal its death knell.

Despite the setbacks in Egypt, Syria and elsewhere, the regional drama is far from over. The forces of the old order are fighting back - as was to be expected - but their victory is not assured.

A prolonged struggle lies ahead, as revolutionaries and reactionaries settle in for a long-term battle for the region's future.

Roger Hardy is the author of The Muslim Revolt: A Journey through Political Islam (2010) and is currently a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics.

39 min: OK, so Postiga can't continue but it's not Oliviera who replaces him, rather it's Hugo Almeida.

38 min: Postiga has just pulled up off the ball, seemingly having snapped his hamstring. He's receiving attention from the medics but if it's as bad as it looks, he won't be playing on and Nelson Oliveira will make an early entrance. That should introduce a pleasing unpredictability to Portugal's attacks. "That's a great made-up story by Dodser O'Dool [20 mins]," snipes Chris Clough. "In my own 'aren't women silly' story, my imaginary girlfriend has remarked to me that it's very impressive that Darida has managed to simultaneously sustain a football career while also writing groundbreaking works of post-modern philosophy. I soon realised - she was thinking of Jacques Derrida!!!"

35 min: A trademark swirling freekick from 30 yards by Ronaldo, except that it swirled several yards wide. Meanwhile Jordan Pickering offers this update on our entry at 20 mins: "Dodser O'Dool is doing his best to hang on to his girlfriend, after shaming her internationally, but he's not quite pulling it off."

33 min: After much bishing and boshing around the Czech box, Ronaldo attempts a flamboyant overhead kick from eight yards: his basic technique was sound, but the direction misaligned, so the ball flew wide.

30 min: Solid defending by Limbersky to stop Nani from collecting a well-intentioned through-ball by Postiga. "In the few days before the Netherlands - Portugal clash, Dutch television broadcaster NOS kept showing this song," jabbers Michiel Jongsma. "Basically it was just a childish provocation. He seemed to pick it up well though, didn't he? II hope the Czechs haven't been so stupid in their post match build-up, as he apparently is quite easily inflamed."

28 min: Told you this would start to open up! The Czechs have prised open Portugal, only for Jiracek to be thwarted at the last by a fine Pepe clearance.

26 min: Nani booked for a minor foul on Limbersky, who makes out that he's been hit by a truck. Moments later Veloso sees yellow for a genuinely oafish tackle.

25 min: Oooooh! That was splendid play by Portugal, followed by a splendid save by Cech! Ronaldo made a brilliant run, Moutino rewarded him with a wonderful pass and Cech surged off his line to charge down Ronaldo's shot from 10 yards.

23 min: Coetrao and Ronaldo one-two their way down the left before a cross from the full-back almost flummoxes the keeper, but doesn't.

20 min: This is tense. And the Czechs continue to look more menacing, with Portugal yet to find their groove. "My girlfriend has loyally been watching the Euros with me and doing her best to seem interested," announces Dodser O'Dool. "But she's not quite pulling it off. 'Oh wow, is that the Pepe? He looks so young!' she just ventured. After lengthy rumination I realised what she was driving at. "Erm, are you thinking of Pele?' I asked. She was."

17 min: Fine run down the right by Darida, followed by an inviting low cross into the centre. Baros flings himself at it but can't connect.

15 min: Plasil and Darida link nicely in midfield before their attack is snuffed out: but there is clearly a latent danger from the Czechs and as this game starts to open up, chances are sure to flow freely. Hopefully.

12 min: That's more like it from Portugal: Coentrao and Nani combined neatly down the left before the Manchester United winger pinged in a cross that required urgent evacuation. The ensuing corner was cleared as far as Moutinho, who smashed a reasonable 20-yard shot into the keeper's arms.

10 min: So far - and yes, I know the game is but a pup - the Czech's strategy has worked. They're clustered deep, preventing Portugal from finding a way through them and then counter-attacking at speed.

8 min: Portugal mount a threat for the first time, massing numbers around the Czech box and trying to pick a way through. but the Czechs stood firm.

6 min: Jiracek gets off the first shot of the match, cutting in off the left to blem one from 18 yards. Pepe deflected it behind for another corner. "I think Alexander Caldin is confusing his bowel complaints," nitpicks William Peake. "Certainly not speaking from experience but incontinence is an inability to control one's bowels, as opposed to questioning the integrity of the resulting waste." I'm so glad we've started this riff.

4 min: Both teams are feeling each other out, as the saying goes. "Granted that Ronaldo was fantastic against the Dutch but I'm very surprised at all this talk of the Portuguese are a one-man team, and especially that Nani has barely been mentioned," spews David Wall. "He's arguably been their best player through the tournament and, were it not for the woeful finishing of some of his team-mates (Ronaldo but even more so Postiga) then he'd probably be heading the list of goal providers by some distance." Who exactly has been saying Portugal are a one-man team? No one sensible, that's for sure. And I agree with you about Nani, although Pepe, Moutinho and Coentrao have also been brilliant.

2 min: A bright start by the Czechs, who confound expectations by launching a dangerous attack alraedy. It was led by Darida, who is making his competitive debut for his country tonight. A solid tackle by Pepe curtailed the move at the expense of a corner, which Portugal cleared without much ado.

1 min: The first Euro 2012 quarter-final is under way thanks to a textbook kick-off by Portugal: is there nothing Ronaldo can't do?

7.43pm: There are five Portuguese players on yellow cards: Coentrao, Ronaldo, Meireles, Pereira and Postiga. Only three of the Czech starts are in a similar predicament: Limbersky, Plasil and Jiracek.

7.40pm: Alexander Caldin is no respector of national anthems so while the players were crooning away, he was typing this: "I liked your reference to incontinent cows covering grass like the Czechs; then realised that you were being somewhat tautological. A cow is always incontinent- it's not as if you ever see a solid cow shit. Rather like birds. Lucky birds are incontinent really, or else think of all the awful opportunities for appalling autoglass adverts."

7.38pm: An explanation for all of you asking what became of the new MBM format: that was merely a sneak preview the other night, it will be properly "rolled out", if you don't mind, for the Olympics.

7.36pm: "Hey!" heys David Schulwolf. "You list Howard Webb as a sergeant? Isn't that a fairly low rank for a man who officiated the World Cup final, and may well officiate the Euro 2012 final, as england have about as much chance of winning as the US and A." Hey, take it up with the police: that is Webb's actual rank.

7.33pm: Have a gander at this little compilation of gems from the man Ronaldo is trying to succeed as Portugal's greatest ever player.

7.28pm: All hail Ritika Bhasker, who found the name that had been eluding you all: the seventh in our list of players to have scored in three Euro finals in a row is ... Vladimir Smicer. To recap, the other six are Postiga, Ronaldo, Nuno Gomes, Henry, Klinsmann and Ibrahimovic.

7.26pm: Oh, and I forgot to mention that Simon McMahon also identified another one of the seven players to have scored in three consecutive Euro final: Nuno Gomes. So now there's only one left.

7.23pm: "After a whole day without any MBMs it's a relief to have you back, Paul," ingratiates Simon McMahon. "Yesterday I had to resort to watching my 'highlights' video (yes, video) of Scotland at major tournament finals, all 30 minutes of it. I'm ridiculously excited at the knockout stage about to start. No more trying to work out permutations and goal differences, who tops the mini-league and head-to-heads; extra-time and penalties here we come..." Was that video of yours really only 30 minutes long? For shame! HEre, treat yourself to all 90 minutes of this.

7.10pm: Harry Bronsdon has waded in early doors both to link to this article on Theo Gebre Selassie (Achtung: it's in German) and to answer the question I posed in the preamble, ie who are the five players other than Postiga and Ronaldo to have scored in three successive Euro finals? Harry has got three others: Klinsmann, Henry and Ibrahimovich. Gareth Beale, meanwhile, suggests Miroslav Klose, while Sager Supedi reckons Alan Shearer and Patrick Kluivert are in the mix. Those are wrong so there are still two more to find.

Preamble:
Painstaking research conducted by someone else reveals that the Czech Republic have been the most dynamic team of Euro 2012 so far, covering more grass than incontinent cows. And while Cristiano Ronaldo spent the first two matches of the tournament suggesting that he couldn't hit one of said bovines on the backside with a banjo, the Real Madrid stallion found his range in spectacular style during his country's third group game against the United Nations of Holland, thereby compensating for Portugal's lack of a decent specialist striker and giving them the look of a top-notch side that is getting it together at exactly the right time. If I were a betting man, I would place a fiver on Portugal to win Euro 2012. Which is to say: if I had not lost all of my other bets so far, I would have some money left to place a fiver on Portugal to win Euro 2012.

"We've started to play very well," confirmed Portugal's Chelsea midfielder Raul Meireles, who's starting to think his country could do what his club did this season by upsetting more fancied teams to claim glory, presumably with him missing the final through suspension. "Nobody regarded us as favourites before the tournament just as nobody regarded Chelsea as favourites in the Champions League," he boomed. "It will be very difficult, but it's our dream, just as it's the dream of all Portuguese people."

Portugal's opponents in tonight's quarter-final are also drawing inspiration from Chelsea, as the Czech Republic intend deploying all of their dynamism to park a fleet of buses in front of Petr Cech's goal. "We will have to stay compact and defend as a team," trilled Czech defender Tomas Sivok, adding: "No one can expect us to open up against them because their counter-attacks are lethal." The Czechs' cunning plan of preventing Portugal from counter-attacking by never launching any attacks of their own was made to look all the more understandable today by the confirmation Tomas Rosicky will not be fit enough to start, and that no friendly wizard has magicked Jan Koller back into the fray and renewed whatever spell it was that made Milan Baros so deadly eight years ago. Their plot, then, seems to be for Cech to prevail on penalties again. For Portugal's sake, Ronaldo better have been doing his banjo practice.

Something for the little grey cells: Hélder Postiga and Ronaldo are among seven players to score at three European Championships. Can you name the other five?

Something else: What made Karal so smiley. And, in the interests of balance, a great Portuguese performance.

Teams:
Czech Republic: Cech; Gebre Selassie, Sivok, Kadlec, Limbersky; Hubshman, Plasil; Jiracek, Darida, Pilar; Baros
Portugal: Patricio; Pereira, Pepe, Alves, Coentrao; Meireles, Veloso, Moutinho; Nani, Postiga, Ronaldo

A Syrian fighter pilot flew his plane to Jordan and requested political asylum on Thursday, raising concerns that the turmoil in Syria could spill over into the Hashemite kingdom.

Samih Maaytah, Jordan’s information minister, told the Financial Times the MiG-21 aircraft landed in Jordan on Thursday morning. Jordanian state media later said that the pilot’s request for political asylum had been granted.

Syrian state media said that communications were lost with a plane flown by Colonel Hassan Hamadeh at 10.34am during a training flight near the Jordanian border. A Defence Ministry statement, quoted by Reuters, later described Col Hamadeh as a “traitor” and said it was in contact with Jordanian authorities to retrieve the aircraft.

“The pilot is considered a deserter from service and a traitor to his country and his military honour. Contacts are under way with the Jordanian side to make arrangements to return the plane,” a statement by the ministry said.

Violence continued in Syria on Thursday, with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) aid workers forced to suspend an attempt to evacuate injured people and civilians from the battle-torn central city of Homs due to shooting. The ICRC said on Wednesday that both sides had agreed to a pause in fighting to facilitate the humanitarian effort.

Thousands of personnel are reported to have defected from the Syrian army, but this is the first time an aircraft has been taken abroad. The Syrian regime has not yet used fighter jets in its military campaigns against opposition areas however, and analysts say it is not clear what the impact of the defection will be.

“It is not necessarily the case that others will follow and that it will have a domino effect on the higher level ranks of the military,” said Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “The real story is about Jordan here and how difficult it is going to be to manage its relations with Syria.”

Although it was the first Arab state to call for Bashar al-Assad to resign as Syrian president, Jordan views the escalating turmoil in Syria as a critical threat to the kingdom’s prized political stability, and has long been determined to avoid any move that would drag the country into the Syrian conflict.

That position will now be tested, as Jordanian policy makers weigh their response to the Syrian defection: on the one hand, Amman will be deeply reluctant to antagonise the regime in Damascus; but Jordan will also want to avoid upsetting countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which support the Syrian rebels but which also provide critical financial support for Jordan.

According to diplomats and officials in Amman, the Jordanian regime is worried in particular about the emergence of a hardline Islamist government in Damascus should the current leadership fall. The fear is that this would encourage Jordan’s own Islamist political party, the main opposition force, to take a more aggressive stance on political reform – possibly scuppering Jordan’s stated plan for a slow, incremental move towards greater political freedom.

Jordanian officials have also voiced concern that parts of Syria are becoming a hotbed of Jihadist activity, and may end up posing an even worse security challenge to the country than Iraq after the US invasion.

Mortgage Bailouts? Country Bailouts? Will They Work?

Ritz-Carlton Dubai

Ritz-Carlton Doha

Sharq Village & Spa

Al Bustan Palace

Ritz Carlton Sharm El Sheikh

Ritz Carlton Dubai Hotel

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